Samar El-Sayed _ A report issued by the research department of the US investment bank "Goldman Sachs" projected that oil prices will head towards moderation over the next year, particularly with the gradual recovery of exported shipments from the Middle East region.
Nevertheless, the bank's report indicated that prices may remain elevated for a longer period than expected amidst the risks of escalating US-Iranian conflict.
In the same context, Daan Struyven, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research and Head of Oil Research at the bank, projected Brent crude to trade at $90 per barrel by December 2026, up from his previous forecast of $85.
The Goldman Sachs team also anticipates that the price of oil will decline next year, with Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel.
The bank's report added that oil exports from the Gulf region, which include about 4 million barrels per day of "dark" shipments via tankers disabling their tracking devices to conceal their movements, have recovered to approach 2025 levels since late last September.
Expectations of Growth in Oil Supplies Originating from the Gulf Region
It projected that oil supplies originating from the Gulf region will witness an upward trend, thanks to continued adaptation to the repercussions of the conflict and the availability of additional transportation resources, particularly pipelines and a larger tanker fleet, which supports achieving further gains.
However, the bank's analysts noted that actual oil prices remain high, with the risk premium estimated at approximately $25.
They pointed out that the decline in oil inventories leads to an increase in demand for it, in addition to the fact that investors' use of it as a hedging tool for their investment portfolios contributes to raising its prices.
Conversely, the report clarified that the main catalyst behind the expectations of price decreases lies in the researchers' baseline scenario, which suggests that the global oil market will shift to recording a surplus starting from the fourth quarter of 2026, attributing this to the adaptation of Gulf suppliers, increased production by non-Gulf suppliers, as well as lower demand resulting from recent high price levels.
